SML Striper Growth

[Deleted]

Bentrod, it is these numbers (fisherman data) you just submitted that are the very numbers I have been using and relying on in terms of forming my basis.  These are the only numbers that anyone could even remotely argue have stayed consistent through all of the changes over the years.  Yes, anyone could argue that fishermen lie (bias).  But as long as the lies and data gathering techniques remain consistent, then the data generated can be used as a means for informed decision making. And when one examines these numbers as they stand, it is hard to determine exactly how they compare to each other over the years.  Thus, it seems logical to normalize this data set by calculating the relative percentage of each number.  And below is exactly what I have done while at the same time, including catch rates.



And through my (don't mess with your butt eyes), I see a lake that has consistently produced around 15% fish that are greater than 30 inches. That is, if you discount the couple of years where a catastrophic fish kill occurred and the lake was rebounding.

And if I really look at these numbers, what I see is not only has this lake been producing high quality fish, it has been doing so as the pressure (catch rates) has definitely trended to the upside.

So basically what I am saying is simple:  "DAN YOU ARE THE MAN!"  How this lake has stayed so great when compared to all other lakes in VA is beyond me. Perhaps it is the depth?  Oh screw trying to figure out why. My bottom line is that I like her just the way she is.

However, if the 2013 fisherman data shows a major change and agrees with the 2013 sample data, then I would be blowing the CHANGE MANAGEMENT horn louder than any of you.  I just don't think it will.  Keyword: think

Mward, when do we get the 2013 fisherman data?  

Man..if only Dan had some more resources to help him do his job more efficiently!  Say something like an ..hmmm... information system? 

[mwardncsu]

The cut off for submission of 2013 angler diaries was end of January. Most of those get submitted in paper copy form, so there is a transcription effort that has to be done - so I'm not sure how soon the data will get entered and compiled - probably a couple of months. I did send Dan an e-mail last night asking if he had the fish head catch date data by month to help clarify if there was any batching that could perhaps lead to some self-selection of size of fish.


Yam - you asked earlier what I believe in. I believe it would be ideal to have more data from the spectrum of fish, and without it I believe we can introduce a larger margin of error into the analysis.

But I also believe that there is info to be gleaned on what is there. I believe, as Smythley said, that by definition this is a problem domain in which there cannot be perfect data or enough data from all the potential variables and it is one in which you are forced to work with imperfect information - and have to use hard data, inference, and even damn rumor - put it all in the pot, mix it up and read the tea leaves through the filter of experience.

I believe that Dan has more training & experience in looking at this data and managing fisheries than any of us, and he also has access to a network of others in the field managing similar fisheries to use as a resource - so I believe he is better qualified than any of us to make assessments.

That said I believe it is our place to question and poke and push and prod on that data & the process by which it's gathered But to do so in a respectful manner. I believe that where we can individual or as organizations contribute to the methods or processes to gather more or better data, we should endeavor to do so.

I believe it is our responsibility to share the data we individual gleaned in as un-biased, un-colored a manner as possible. And to respect others as we as participate in the discussion without twisting words from others or getting overly heated in the discussion.

I believe that SML has some of the best data of any striper fishery in the nation thanks to the efforts of DGIF, Dan & most importantly the anglers on SML that take their time to collect data in one or more ways.

I also believe that we all generally want the same thing - the best for our fishery - though we all will have a little different definition of what that means - and that's OK.

And finally - I believe I'm ready to go drag some big shad on a bank and catch & release a few nice fish!

Oh - and.... I believe I can Fly

[BentRod]

But wait...I thought Dan's data was in no way representative of the real population?! So now everything looks good and consistent and wonderful?! Don't be saying Mward contradicts himself!! By the way, I don't disagree with you..I do think SML is awesome and I like it just fine, but should it be better? It's funny you say Dan is the man as far as management and then disagree with his management opinion when he's been managing and studying trends on this lake for 20+yrs.

Who came up with the slot idea? I honestly don't know..my guess is Dan. I know the same old timers that fought like hell to stop it now like it. Bigun did you agree with the slot when it first was being talked about? Be honest! Change isn't always bad!

Just to be clear, I have no idea what the right management option is. I trust Dan and feel as small of a change as this is, it may be worth a shot. I'll be the first to say "we f'd up" if it does happen to do that and I bet Dan will be too. I need to go fishing..you people are driving me bonkers, but I like you all anyways..at least you have passion.

PS Mward can't fly...he can barely throw a cast net..

[Deleted]

yep, that is one of the great things about this place....we can argue like hell and disagree, but still remain friends.......

Sorry Tyler for pushing you a little hard on this issue, and it does seem like I prod you a little more than others, but that is because I see myself in you when I was your age. The stand your ground in your beliefs and don't take no crap kinda guy.....or maybe I should say.....always thinks we a right.  

I've been a member of this site a long time, and your earlier post is the first emotional post I have ever seen you make......and honestly, I kinda liked it......

[Deleted]

oh, yea,...... you are right, I fought like hell against the slot and yes I do like it now.......what's your point.    LOL!!!!!

[CorneliaGale]

Since we are getting our stocking fish from Kerr fish, are the fish in Kerr growing at a better rate or they doing the same as SML fish and stop growing at about the same age and size. I don't fish Kerr and don't have a idea how big the fish run down there.

[mwardncsu]

Feb 12, 2014 10:40:53 GMT -5 CorneliaGale said:

Since we are getting our stocking fish from Kerr fish, are the fish in Kerr growing at a better rate or they doing the same as SML fish and stop growing at about the same age and size. I don't fish Kerr and don't have a idea how big the fish run down there.

I don't have the specifics on Kerr - but ran across this from a couple of years ago. I've heard mention that Kerr has a number of different, not totally related issues going on at the moment..

ww2.roanoke.com/outdoors/billcochran/wb/318345

[Deleted]

Feb 12, 2014 10:12:33 GMT -5 BentRod said:

But wait...I thought Dan's data was in no way representative of the real population?! So now everything looks good and consistent and wonderful?! Don't be saying Mward contradicts himself!! By the way, I don't disagree with you..I do think SML is awesome and I like it just fine, but should it be better? It's funny you say Dan is the man as far as management and then disagree with his management opinion when he's been managing and studying trends on this lake for 20+yrs.

Who came up with the slot idea? I honestly don't know..my guess is Dan. I know the same old timers that fought like hell to stop it now like it. Bigun did you agree with the slot when it first was being talked about? Be honest! Change isn't always bad!

Just to be clear, I have no idea what the right management option is. I trust Dan and feel as small of a change as this is, it may be worth a shot. I'll be the first to say "we f'd up" if it does happen to do that and I bet Dan will be too. I need to go fishing..you people are driving me bonkers, but I like you all anyways..at least you have passion.

PS Mward can't fly...he can barely throw a cast net..

Tyler, As I was driving to school today I was considering how to apologize if I offended anyone and thinking about the purpose of debate.  I questioned if this debate is producing any value.  I questioned if I should stop poking and prodding the data. I questioned many things.

And as I walked to my office just now, a past student of mine stopped me and said.."Hey Dr. May, guess what, we are actually using that fish story in the Roanoke Times as a basis for our project in our project management class.  We are creating a system proposal and a feasibility analysis to determine if an information system would provide any value to that biologist at SML. Something about the bass not growing like they once did? My Professor said you showed this story to him. This is really cool!"

I kid you not...this just happened.  And all I can say is wow.  

And after reading yet another elegantly written piece by Mward in terms of his beliefs and rehashing all the information and "stand your ground" posts that you have submitted, all I can say is that this debate has been a good one.  My respect for all of you has increased exponentially!  

And even though I teach stats among many other things, I do not believe anything with any certainty that I have been saying when it comes to any numbers I have been playing with.  I have simply been poking and prodding. For me, this is all about awareness, knowledge management and an attempt to get to know all of you better.  At the end of the day, I truly believe that if you can't trust Dan Wilson's better instinct and professional experience, the manager of arguably one of the better Striper fisheries in the nation, then who can you trust?

You, bentrod, really don't deserve to go bonkers, as you work so hard to protect the thing you love so much!  Thus I will cease playing devils advocate in this debate and will add that I will do my part to help collect, collate, and process data in any manner that I can.  

And oh yeah...I sincerely apologize if I offended anyone especially Mward and Bentrod and most importantly, Dan.

[mwardncsu]

No offense taken here - if you don't have skin that is at a little bit thick you don't last too long around here and certainly won't make it through the slogs that need to happen along the way....

[Deleted]

Hot off the press:

[CorneliaGale]

mwardncsu said:

I don't have the specifics on Kerr - but ran across this from a couple of years ago. I've heard mention that Kerr has a number of different, not totally related issues going on at the moment..

ww2.roanoke.com/outdoors/billcochran/wb/318345

Thanks Mike for the link, looks like they are having the same problem on Kerr, fish aren't growing. Also got the parasite problem down there also with a low baitfish problem both would cause the fish not to grow. Now I wonder if other lakes that are using our stock are having the same problem with the fish growing slow and just stopping growth at a certain weight or length.

[BentRod]

Feb 12, 2014 10:40:53 GMT -5 CorneliaGale said:

Since we are getting our stocking fish from Kerr fish, are the fish in Kerr growing at a better rate or they doing the same as SML fish and stop growing at about the same age and size. I don't fish Kerr and don't have a idea how big the fish run down there.

May God only help us if Kerr's fish are growing faster than ours!

[BentRod]

No offense taken here either. Like Bigun says, I'm always gonna be right (even though you guys are smarter than me!) so it didn't matter anyways!

That's a cool thing YAM! I know in the past, an online database was discussed as an option, but I think there was some reason it wasn't pursued any farther..money maybe? It would certainly help me add my info more often, especially now with smartphone technology allowing us to access Internet pretty much anywhere we are. We could upload real time data...like log in..record our amazing catches..log out when we're done fishing.

[CorneliaGale]

Feb 12, 2014 11:52:20 GMT -5 BentRod said:

No offense taken here either. Like Bigun says, I'm always gonna be right (even though you guys are smarter than me!) so it didn't matter anyways!

That's a cool thing YAM! I know in the past, an online database was discussed as an option, but I think there was some reason it wasn't pursued any farther..money maybe? It would certainly help me add my info more often, especially now with smartphone technology allowing us to access Internet pretty much anywhere we are. We could upload real time data...like log in..record our amazing catches..log out when we're done fishing.

Why don't we set up something on here where we can do a online database, can it be none without too much trouble and be easy to log in and add information to it when we are out and fishing. Just wondering?

[Deleted]

Feb 12, 2014 11:52:20 GMT -5 BentRod said:

No offense taken here either. Like Bigun says, I'm always gonna be right (even though you guys are smarter than me!) so it didn't matter anyways!

That's a cool thing YAM! I know in the past, an online database was discussed as an option, but I think there was some reason it wasn't pursued any farther..money maybe? It would certainly help me add my info more often, especially now with smartphone technology allowing us to access Internet pretty much anywhere we are. We could upload real time data...like log in..record our amazing catches..log out when we're done fishing.

Well at this point it is in the planning phase.  Right now we are doing a system proposal which essentially establishes if a need is present.  This particular thread will serve as input.

We will then do feasibility tests followed by gathering requirements.  

Any chance we could start a thread and ask everyone what they would like to see in an online data management system?

I'm not making any promises nor has Dan accepted any proposal, but here in academia, we need the requirements to fulfill the next phase of the project.  This forum would be an awesome means for gathering requirements.

Once we get all of that AND if everything checks out, I could actually get the real (not academic) development done by as early as the end of this year.  Our capstone class requires the students to create a fully functional website with a database back end for businesses.  All I would have to do is either get the current professor involved or just take over the class for a semester.  We also teach an online mobile app development class as well. 

So to clarify, I need requirements.  Using this forum would be an awesome and efficient means to gather requirements (a paper in itself).

We can do just about anything you need.  Graphical Design?  Usability?  Data needs?  Reports for the fisherman?  Cool anything?  You name it.  Uploading pictures, keeping track of fish of the month?  Citations?  Again...you name it!

On the back side would be a database to make Dan's life more efficient.

So?  What do you think?  A thread for requirements?  Even if nothing gets implemented, I am hoping for at least a paper or two which would bring more attention to this issue.